Opposit of Make America Great Again

'Make America Not bad Over again', aka #MAGA, is indisputably a great slogan. Or as Trump would put it, a really actually great and wonderful slogan.

It does all the things you want a slogan to do. It'south short and punchy, easy to remember, still fun to shout the hundredth fourth dimension, similar barracking for a football game team.

Information technology conveys a sentiment that'due south impossible to disagree with, all the same it carries a sneaky payload (the exclamation that America isn't peachy any more, and it's the other lot'due south fault).

The Brexiters had a killer slogan too. 'Have Dorsum Command'. Once more: short, punchy, impossible to deny. And information technology had also a sneaky payload: you've lost command and it'southward Europe's fault.

I couldn't tell you what the Remainers' slogan was. And I can't tell you what Hillary Clinton's is, either.

Donald Trump'south slogan has caught on. Credit:Bloomberg

2. Facts don't affair

If you're a liberal y'all probably obsessively posted Facebook links to fact-bank check columns on Trump in which he incessantly states non-truths that anyone with a passing familiarity with Google can disprove in a microsecond.

Sorry, information technology won't help.

This isn't even about the 'post-fact politics' that everyone is going on about.

Election politics accept never been nigh facts.

People don't vote on facts. They vote on promises. When you lot vote, you're choosing a futurity. And in that location are no facts most the future. Cipher.

There are but predictions and promises.

The Brexiteers lied and fudged. They made claims virtually Eu regulations that were rubbish, they vastly overestimated the internet British contribution to the European union upkeep and so they said all that money could instead be spent on the NHS.

They said Europe would be fine with a United kingdom of great britain and northern ireland that rejected European clearing but stayed in the single market.

They implied that the UK had no sovereignty on issues that, in fact, it had plenty of sovereignty over.

They flatly contradicted an array of economists who predicted economic gloom.

Brexit leader Michael Gove was mocked for proverb "people in this country have had enough of experts".

But he was right. Voters generally don't consult experts for the facts before voting.

Britain's National Wellness Services was used equally part of the Exit campaign. Credit:Getty Images

three. Polls tin can exist wrong and often are

British pollsters famously got both the Brexit and the 2015 Great britain general election wrong.

In its post-election analysis, YouGov admitted it had oversampled the immature and undersampled the old. But some other 1.iv per cent of the error they simply couldn't work out.

Later on Brexit they had another get. They complained that people paid too much attention to the polls that predicted Remain and dismissed the ones that predicted Leave. If you don't retrieve Trump will win, yous discount polls that predict the opposite.

They also found online polls were much more accurate than phone polls, which skewed the 'poll of polls' estimate which is supposed to smooth out errors.

More generally, polling experts say the Brexit pollsters applied 'sampling fault' corrections that corresponded to increasingly outdated predictions nearly how people vote (run into below).

The importance of these corrections is brought habitation by a contempo experiment by The New York Times, in which they gave four reputable pollsters the same raw polling information.

The pollsters came back with Clinton at +four, +iii and +i, and Trump at +i.

This wasn't the margin of fault, past which different polls get unlike results by sampling dissimilar people. This was the inner fudging of the pollsters, exposed.

Mail service-Brexit breakdowns of voting patterns revealed that the biggest determinant of someone's vote was their level of education.

An overwhelming proportion of voters with postal service-graduate degrees voted Remain.

An overwhelming proportion of voters with no post-high-schoolhouse qualifications voted Go out.

It was a bigger determinant than income, or race, or political allegiance, or geographical location.

Arguably, the The states ballot is a similar postal service-political party-political one: many Americans are not really voting for a Republican or a Democrat, they are voting on what those people stand for: the 'political institution' vs a 'mad equally hell and not going to take it any more than' interloper.

This is a similar choice to the Brexit choice.

And so the split among voters is probable to be the same.

And if at that place is a large, not-3rd-educated hinterland ready and mobilised to vote for Trump, they're not where the media are, and they're not where your social media are (and, every bit above, they're not where the pollsters are).

They're invisible, and they're near to vote.

Nigel Farage, the leader of UKIP, tapped into the angry voter during the Brexit campaign. Credit:Getty Images

5. The merely thing to fear is fearfulness itself

'Project Fright' is said to have won the Scottish plebiscite debate: a loud and relentless barrage of bad news nigh what independence would mean for the Scots.

In the Brexit debate, the Remain campaign was repeatedly derided as 'Project Fear Mark Ii', for its dire predictions of mail-Brexit economic woe.

Simply Leave played on fear also – and much more effectively.

This was fear of immigrants taking jobs, taking houses, taking school places, taking hospital beds.

This was fear of Brussels smothering British justice and strangling concern with ruby-red record.

This was fear of the rise of Germany as a bigger, stronger European power.

This was fear of the dead-weight effect of Greece etc on the continent'due south economy.

Merely information technology was generally fear of immigrants.

A taxi driver in Liverpool told me final month he voted for Brexit because "one of my passengers was raped by a group of Somali men at a nightclub".

I asked him what that had to practice with the Eu.

He didn't answer.

Fright of immigrants is the political theme of the final two years, at least. As a tool to mobilise voters, it works.

And Trump owns it.

6. Bonus points

So not to leave you utterly depressed, here are a couple of comforting points.

- In both the Brexit and Scottish referenda, the side with the most legacy media support won the twenty-four hour period.

- Hillary Clinton has several qualities that David Cameron lacked.

- None of the major Brexit proponents, not fifty-fifty Boris Johnson, had been recorded boasting about grabbing women's undercarriage.

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Source: https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/make-america-great-again-is-a-great-slogan-and-other-lessons-from-brexit-for-the-us-election-20161012-gs05gm.html

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